Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
