Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
